Nobility In The Quest For Fusion: Pandora's Box or an Elixir Of Life?
Luke Simons
In this thinkpiece, plasma physicist and data scientist Luke Simons explores how the ‘quest’ for fusion could unfold. Despite the potential for fusion to be transformational for societal wellbeing and development, Luke suggests that a long-term perspective helps us consider who might benefit, how they might benefit and whether these consequences square with the aspirations of fusion.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Open Fusion Collective.
I’ve always found it difficult to explain when asked the classic question of why fusion energy is always 30 years away.
That was until I heard the perfect answer given by Dr. Ian Chapman at the conference announcing the results of the final high performance (DT) operations of the Joint European Torus (JET), prior to its shutdown in 2024.
JET had just demonstrated a landmark result by producing 67% of the energy from fusion needed to make the reaction self-sustaining. Chapman described these results as a step on ‘our quest to delivering fusion power’ for humanity. This framing is perfect because it communicates exactly the role that fusion plays in society today. We are on a scientific quest — one that began with Sir Arthur Eddington’s discovery of the reaction that fuels the sun and one which ends… How?
Today, we are navigating our way gradually towards the conclusion of this quest, driven by the winds of various stakeholders. The goal in the physicists’ mind is to reach a controlled, net energy gain from the reaction through understanding the complex details of particle motion in the confining potentials. For the engineer, the objective is the achievement of a significant engineering gain, including plant efficiencies and Carnot cycles, while maintaining safety and longevity. Finally, for the organisations, businesses and countries who will execute on these designs — the grail is revenue.
But what is humanity’s reward for completing the quest?
The basic answer is given by the correlation of the Human Development Index (HDI), a well-reputed metric for evaluating human wellbeing, with access to cheap electricity. When we achieve our goal of generating bountiful electricity with fusion by converting hydrogen into helium, electricity prices will go down and HDI will go up. We will have harnessed an energy source of unparalleled abundance that’s both operationally carbon neutral and theoretically accessible for all of humanity. This is no small achievement and may well contribute to the advent of a golden age of international human development and well-being.
But with this long-term view, it’s important to remember that the humanity we are working for lives in a distant future. On one hand, this means that by making small steps in our mission to achieve fusion today, we may contribute to unlocking equitable energy access for the entire future of humanity. Many modern moral philosophers argue that these actions can have hugely positive consequences, especially when we consider that many orders of magnitude more humans may exist in the future than do today.
However, on the other hand, it’s vital to admit that these people don’t exist in any real way now. Even if fusion energy becomes a meaningfully operational technology in our lifetimes, which seems unlikely, ‘we’ will not be the same people then as ‘we’ are today. Not only does that mean we are investing in the livelihoods of peoples that may never live or who may not care for our inventions, but that we are diverting our attention from the very real and urgent needs of those suffering at this moment.
In general, planting a tree under whose shade we will never sit is sage wisdom, but if we are to go to the effort of planting the tree, we should be sure the tree of fusion will bear fruit that we want our grandchildren to be eating.
So, what is the potential impact of the ‘fruit of fusion’ with our current path?
It is difficult to say, and one can only speculate.
What seems clear is that in offering an energy source of unmatched plenty, these devices will be, by today’s standards, large and expensive. In the geopolitical setting of the near future, this is likely to limit access to those that can afford them, namely countries in the Global North and large energy companies. A case already evident from the current investment, planned construction projects and the political intentions of those in power.
Given the colossal impact of the path we choose to take today in our quest for fusion, it is therefore vital that we ensure access to the technology remains equitable, in spite of the difficulties with the scale of our ambition. For the moment, it seems the fate of our quests end is still uncertain and as Eddington himself suggested it might end either with us ‘controlling this latent power for the well-being of the human race or for its suicide’.
Luke Simons is a data scientist at the Swiss Plasma Center (SPC) at EPFL. He holds a PhD in Fusion Energy from Imperial College London and has worked across several areas of plasma physics. Beyond his research, Luke is interested in exploring how a deeper understanding of physics can be applied to create greater societal and environmental benefits.
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